NBA Basketball Power Index: Forecasts and key issues for 2024–2025

Analytical methods can be used to predict future events. It’s comparable to a superpower minus the Hollywood productions.

The NBA’s statistical powerhouse on ESPN is the Basketball Power Index (BPI). Although the superpower isn’t flawless, it is more adept at predicting the future than the typical individual clicking through League Pass with his finger.

It observes how successful teams were in the past, how they have evolved, and who they must play. Based on the participants in the game, it makes adjustments for the teams that underperformed or overperformed.

For instance, the BPI is aware that the Memphis Grizzlies struggled in their last campaign despite Ja Morant starting just nine games and the team’s extensive use of minutes for players who won’t play this year.

The anticipated starters for this season—Morant, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., Marcus Smart, and Zach Edey—played 137 NBA games in the previous campaign, an average of 27 per player—which is also the number of games Memphis won in that campaign.

The BPI gives them a 69% chance of making the playoffs in the extremely competitive Western Conference because the older players are back and Edey looked like a Rookie of the Year contender in Summer League.

Like everyone else, the BPI finds it difficult to predict injuries. Since past injuries are the strongest indicator of future ailments, the BPI is a little wary that it won’t happen in Memphis. This is one of the reasons why elite teams, not only Memphis, tend to fall back around 41 victories; according to the BPI, no team is predicted to win 60 games this season.

The BPI also makes the assumption that the teams that finished last season in the bottom spot will actually contend rather than tank, umm, go into development mode. Because it believes they will really play players like Ben Simmons or Bojan Bogdan, the BPI projects teams like the Brooklyn Nets, Portland Trail Blazers, and Washington Wizards higher than most projection systems.

Who will come out on top?

With a 21% chance of winning the championship, the Milwaukee Bucks were predicted by the BPI to have the greatest title odds the previous season. It admired the skillful lineup that guard Damian Lillard paired with forwards Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton. It doesn’t actually watch soap operas, so it was unable to completely explain the coaching soap opera that took place.

Particularly Antetokounmpo questioned Adrian Griffin, the previous employer, until the latter was fired, at which point the new boss was no superior to the former. They didn’t benefit from that, and the BPI remembers.

The Celtics have a league-high 26% probability to win the NBA championship again this year, according to the BPI. It hopes there aren’t any soap operas there because it really likes them.

Last year, Boston possessed quality at every position, and those who had criticized coach Joe Mazzulla for his choices the year before were forced to hold their peace during a dominant run. Though the BPI can’t see all the details going through Mazzulla’s mind, it can see enough to believe that they will result in the raising of the 19th flag in Boston.

However, the Celtics have some serious rivals. The Philadelphia 76ers have improved, but it’s always uncertain if All-Star center Joel Embiid can continue to play at this level after only 1,309 minutes in 39 games the previous season. If he doesn’t, Tyrese Maxey and Paul George offer a sizable safety net as well.

We who developed the BPI with the intention of seeing into the future remain rather dubious about its capacity to forecast the consequences of Embiid’s health. There will be more on that in a later section.)

Teams like Kevin Durant’s Phoenix Suns and LeBron James’ Los Angeles Lakers remarkably face a coin-flip chance as to whether they make the playoffs before the BPI simulates the season and finds that 12 of the top 18 teams by talent are out West. As of right now, Memphis, Denver, Minnesota, and Dallas all have higher BPI predictions to make the postseason.